The publishing industry is changing. I have heard this over and over again. But, as of yet, there is no follow-up to that declaration. Everyone seems to know that the large publishers are struggling, the development of digital texts and e-readers are changing the way people read, the emergence of self-publishing is changing the literary landscape, and independent booksellers are rapidly disappearing as online and chain bookstore dominate the market. All of this is fact. But it seems like everyone in the industry is just waiting to see how it will all shake out—none of the big players are willing to make a prediction, let alone take any action to adapt to the changes.
Because the experts are keeping quiet, I find it difficult to make predictions myself. If there was a loud and public debate raging among large publishers, I may be able to form some more solid opinions, but I haven’t worked in the industry, and I haven’t experienced the changes and challenges first hand. But based on the emergence of new technology, and the rumors I have heard, I have a few broad predictions for the future of publishing:
1.
I believe e-readers will become more technologically advanced and e-books will become more common. As the iPad and other devises are introduced to the market, their competition with one another will drive publishers to develop more digital content, and thus drive consumers to purchase that content. I think e-books will become more advanced and the devise on which the e-books are read will become more user-friendly. I also think the textbook market will drive e-book sales, and in ten years, if students are lucky, all course texts will be available as e-books.
2.
I believe the use of online bookstores will grow and these virtual stores will dominate the market more and more in the coming years. I think some company at some point will be able to give Amazon a run for its money, but I think the online sales model will be much the same. I also believe at least one chain will hang on. Ten years from now the baby boomers will still be out and about, and traditional bookstores will still find a viable market. I think independent bookstores are more or less doomed. But I would love to see an emergence of specialty book shops. I think the book has an opportunity to become more of a specialty object, and I think there will be stores to reflect that, and to serve the specialty markets, in the coming years.
3.
I think more small publishers will emerge, especially those publishing e-books, and large publishers will get deeper into the development of e-books. But I don’t think large publishers will go away. Where there is money to be made (and I believe there is in e-books) there will be investors. Some large houses may fail if they don’t adapt to new formats, but I don’t think all large publishers will be so resistant. There are too many interested parties to let that happen.
This is an exciting time for the publishing industry. And I think this is just the beginning. All things considered, ten years is not a very long time, and I think the industry will still be in flux. I think people will still have confusion and worries. In fact, I think the changes the industry is facing now are only the beginning. We happen to live in a time when new technological development makes possible this week something that may not have been possible last week. I don’t think there is an end in sight as far as that is concerned, and these advancements will continue to be applied to all industries, not just publishing.
People will never stop reading. They may read even more now than they did twenty years ago because sharing ideas and information is so easy. And I don’t think people will ever lose interest in stories. The origin and delivery of content is changing, but people’s need for it is not. Therefore, I think literacy and culture only stands to benefit from the changes in the publishing industry. And because of the growing access to content and ease of distribution, the publishing industry itself can only grow—if it is willing to adapt.
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